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Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Posted by: Kevin McCullough at 12:10 PM

If the Rasmussen folks are right, (and I personally believe they have the MOST comprehensive polling techniques at work today) then the GOP as it stands now - has a tremendous opportunity to get the White House in 2008.

With Hillary putting distance between herself and Obama nationally (although if Obama wins Iowa all bets are off) it seems increasingly clear that she will be the nominee.

With the new Rasmussen data today and even Ron Paul as the match-up Hillary can do no better than 48%.

Now for all you Clinton freaks who thinks Bill Clinton was still more wildly popular than George W. Bush - you will recall that the 40%'s were good enough to win. But you have to remember that the both Clinton victories were heavily triangulated to the right of center (Perot and Buchannan).

Gore and Kerry learned that 48% was not a desirable number... And 48% is the BEST that Hillary can presently achieve.

So what does this mean?

The GOP needs to carefully look at the positions of any and all of their present candidates and get the strongest anti-Hillary candidate there is. The most striking contrast will have the best chance.

So who does that mean? Well I have to admit that I was once firmly excited about Fred Thompson as a candidate - I wish he were as excited now that he is one - as I was about the prospect of him being one. Unless that changes significantly I'm afraid I'm going to have to go back to two of the other top tier guys - Romney  and Huckabee.

Of the two - I'm most like Huckabee socially, though after having spoken with Romney now on three occassions I am as firmly convinced that he is the genuine convert that he has claimed to be.

Fiscally no doubt Romney stands in sharpest contrast to Hillary.

A Romney/Hunter ticket would be two conservatives from two very BLUE states, and possibly create headaches for the liberals to defend - what should be guaranteed victories. I believe the cascading endorsements for Romney by the prominent evangelicals, coupled with Dobson's non-criticism of him would help Romney secure most if not all southern bible-belt regions.

Long story short - I don't see Red States that Hillary could steal from the 2004 map and the GOP could be in position to yield threats in the BLUE border state (California), and the liberal nugget in the northeast (Massachusetts, New Hampshire).

Without triangulation, with clear sharp contrasts to Hillary's big-government, big tax give aways, big abortion support, and big gay marriage push - a Romney/Hunter ticket would be a conservative judo chop to the larynx - and the screech would finally be silenced!




 

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