I was the first person to predict that Obama will win the 2008 election. I based my pick on five specific reasons. But as I have turned this topic serial, I have realized there are more reasons than the original five.
For review the original five were:
1. Raging Liberals will seem too extreme, voters want someone "above the fray."
2. Disgusted Conservatives have no charismatic options - Guiliani, McCain, Romney - they've all got problems.
3. Exhausted Moderates - they want "a candidate who makes me feel good"...
4. Energized Blacks will turn out record numbers...
5. Gullible Evangelicals like Rick Warren will be duped into setting Obama up to peel off 15-20% of the GOP's most loyal base.
Here's number six:
6. All he will have to do is get past Hillary, and he's already well on his way. But there are several layers to this.
MONEY/DONORS - We are seeing that he is converting Hillary donors. George Soros held a party last week that was stuffed with former Clinton funders and the word was - Obama impressed. Soros is withholding any support for Hillary this go around until he makes a final decision - that's not good news to the woman who had already been more or less crowned as the Democrat in the race.
AFRICAN-AMERICAN PRIMARY VOTES - Then there's the pesky African-American vote. This block went 89% for Kerry, even if they were holding their nose while doing so. Hillary is not as well liked in the African-American community as her husband was adored. She's been given the benefit of the doubt much of the way, but compared to Obama she lacks the natural warmth. All Obama needs to do to win the primary is sway 45% of African American voters? With his personality, the access he will be given to nearly 90-95% of most black pulpits, Hillary won't stand a chance in this category of votes. And that means she will have to look elsewhere to counter balance the offset she will lose to him.
ISSUES - Two issues Obama seems clearly preferable to Hillary on amongst the minds of lefties. He is unequivocal on universal health care. You may remember this was Hillary's issue as first lady - and a complete disaster. Voters have heard her plan, and what she wants to do along these lines. Now most democrats are scared to touch it. Obama advocates for it, without details as to how to make it happen, and sermonizes why it's the "right thing to do." Hillary comes off looking like a retread. Secondly is the war, for Democratic primary voters Obama opposed from the beginning, Hillary attempted to triangulate - that may in fact come back to haunt her.
Remember the media is sucking up ALL the media oxygen for Hillary and Obama. To listen to the coverage right now - you wouldn't even know that there are other candidates - some even who have formally announced. Should Obama and Hillary eventually make their formal announcements look for that to continue, even accelerated.