"I've done it before, and here I go again..."

One thing is clear, Barack Obama is so consistent - it's scary. When he ran for the U.S. Senate seat he secured MORE votes in the Democratic PRIMARY than did all of the GOP candidates COMBINED. In the City of Chicago (predominantly Democrat) he got more votes than all of the collar counties (seven of them - normally GOP) COMBINED.

When I penned in December of 2006 that Obama would be the nominee - I wasn't joking. Hillary has finally awakened to this reality.

But the issue that the GOP needs to consider seriously is the issue of TURN OUT. Ultimately because Hillary/Obama/Edwards all share the same views on so many issues it seems almost irrelevant to me the position of the Democrat so much as his ability to excite voters and bring them to the polls. Obama did that lavishly in his primary race for Senate, and he broke the bank on it in the general election.

He's doing exactly the same thing now. The ONLY news coming out of Iowa for the Dems was turn out. Turn out due exclusively to Barack Obama.

Understanding this entirely - ask yourself the question what do the GOP candidates do to the GOP base (predominantly church going voters). Ask yourself the question does this candidate cause people to become energized, or damper the base's enthusiasm.

Giuliani - massive apathy effect on the GOP base due to social issues.
McCain - massive hostility effect because of direct betrayals on numbers of issues.
Thompson - little hostility from any major voting group within the GOP base.
Huckabee - ABLE TO ENERGIZE social conservatives in large numbers.
Romney -  confusion about past record, and present positions - slight apathy effect.
Paul - well - he's Paul - massive overt nuclear hostility effect.

Throw into this mix what I've already written about regarding Huckabee's ability to draw record numbers - and we mean RECORD numbers of African Americans (particularly church going) and you have to give another point for energizing voters to the Huckster.

But you have to also ask the inverted question - do GOP candidates repel certain groups of voters?

Giuliani - hostile opposition by African Americans do to police scandals
Romney - practiced a faith that was overtly racist until 1978, and has been nothing but stiff, and the whole way his father's involvement with MLK got mangled - they way it played in black circles was "mitt mislead" (and note it's not about facts - its about perceptions.)
McCain/Thompson register moderate support from black voters - but no doubt LOSE some that Bush held in 2004.
Paul - the whisper campaign saying he's an anti-semite hurts him on race...
Huckabee - 49% of black votes in his run for Governor...