Saturday, June 21, 2008
Posted by:
Kevin McCullough
at
1:46 PM
 SO Beautiful! So 62% of Americans say, "DRILL HERE, DRILL NOW!" When you pay $5 a gallon for gas it's easy to understand why. Every item of food you now eat has become much more expensive to consume (unless you grew it in your own backyard.) Coupled with that dilemma is the reality that nobody believes the environmental whack jobs anymore. Al Gore the love guru of the greenies has been shown to not only be the biggest hypocrite/liar/inventor of new imaginations related to global warming (every claim of his movie now being discredited by more than 41,000 meteorologists, climatologists, and earth science academics), but someone that can't even control his own energy usage. Gore this year consumed 10% MORE than he had a year previous. (Gore justifies it by saying, "I'm so important that I HAVE to!") By the way his margin of INCREASE was enough to power more than 230 homes for a year. But in addition to that - all the "the end of the world is at hand" types have refused ocean drilling because of the fear of pollution to the marine under life. The problem now is that we all have seen that when a level 5 Hurricane swept through the gulf (Katrina) followed by a level 4 (Rita) - even though the rigs in the gulf (over 800) had some damage to the rigs themselves, NOT ONE DROP OF OIL was spilled. Given that - I expect this 62% to increase - big time the more the price of gas increases. And Barack Obama says - no more drilling, no more exploration, no more depending on ourselves to supply the energy we need... And that's NOT change we can believe in...
New Fox poll
76% say drill IMMEDIATELY!
New Zogby poll is much higher than 62% too! |
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Like every other idiot on this site, I am going to ask you: How much money are we going to save/gallon if we left off shore drilling ban all together? Give us numbers. You have done your research, haven't you Kevin? This ain't your chickenhawk convension where lies slip down your throat like a butter over a bonfire.
Numbers Kevin, we are waiting... |
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Of basic economics?
Supply vs. Demand.
Saudis charge us far more than they should - WHY? Because we do not supply for ourselves.
Drilling increases our own supply this creating LESS demand for their oil and TADAH - lowering the demand of their product.
That's good for National Security, International Policy, Energy Independence, and Economic Security for US...
Are you with me so far or should I use smaller words.
And if we went HARD into deep ocean, AMWR, Rocky Mountain coal/oil processing, along with the development of nuclear power to the tune of 45 to 100 plants across the nation - we would dramatically lower the energy needs/costs (entirely through clean methods I might add) across the nation.
AMWR has roughly 600 Billion barrels, the East Coast shelf has over 90 Billion barrels, and the thinking about clean coal is in the Billions of potential Barrels as well...
Imagine not buying a SINGLE drop of oil - FROM ANYONE - for like 30 years? (On just what we've discovered thus far?)
Hujmin - you're likely going to say something else that's completely nuts like CO2 is a pollutant.
And if you think that way - then be my guest, move to Europe and pay $10 a gallon for energy that you so desperately need... |
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For once I would like you folks to actually do some research before opening your mouth.
REMEMBER, THIS IS NO LONGER JUST A U.S. ECONOMY . . . IT IS A WORLD ECONOMY. If the speculators knew that this country WAS SERIOUS about drilling, building nuclear plants, and searching and developing for other alternatives, you would see the price drop precipitously. It is all about the law of supply and demand, whether you choose to admit it or not. And, there are many products that this country uses that require oil to be produced. If we did it your way, this country would fold in a nanosecond. But, I get the feeling that your crowd would prefer it that way.
For you guys, it is nothing but politics all day and everyday. Senator Obama is not the "for change" candidate, he is the "politics as usual" candidate.
For once I would like to see politicians in Washington put politics aside and work for the good of the country. The Republicans have tried to meet the dems halfway, but were rebuffed.
FINALLY, I WANT THIS COUNTRY TO REMAIN THE MOST POWERFUL IN THE WORLD. I SAY DRILL, and DRILL NOW!
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I like things simple.Cut to the chase,if you will.
Amid the the most severe energy crunch the World has ever seen, Obama says drilling for oil is useless. |
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Let me make it clear that I am 100% for drilling NOW. But it is absolutely true that it won't make prices go down. If that is the reason you believe we need to drill now, you will be very disappointed. There is NOTHING except a global recession that will bring down prices. It will take several years just to build the equipment required to drill on a scale that will make a difference LATER. It will certainly slow down the pace of price increases but the reason we need to drill is to buy time to develop the alternatives. The opponents to drilling can make a very compelling case without resorting to lies. It will not help supporters for drilling to lie when we have an even more compelling case without lying. We just have to grow up and face the reality that higher prices are here to stay, they will get higher and like it or not, they are part of the solution. This is as much a behavioral problem as it is one of policy. |
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I never saw the figure 600 billion bbls for ANWR. We don't know for sure because drilling wells to get better estimates is also not allowed but I'm pretty sure the number settled on for now is about 30 billion bbls which is like finding 30 new wells big enough to exploit.
The other thing is "speculators". Although speculators are certainly adding to the problem, floor traders on the CBOE are routinely quoted as saying that it adds substantially to the volatility but not to the average price. There are only as many oil contracts as there is oil delivered. Someone is going to take delivery for every single contract so supply and demand for oil doesn't change although the competition for oil contracts on speculation can make the prices flucutate wildly on any given day or even every few minutes. But it works itself out. And the only prices that we see quoted in these discussions are for the current contracts that are due to expire next.
The other very important thing to remember is that OPEC was created to stabilize prices but because they can no longer flood the market with oil, they have lost their ability to set the price. So even if you believe that speculators are setting the price, that fact alone tells you that we have reached peak oil. Prices are going up so get used to it. |
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Everyone refers to the current contract (July e.g.) to talk about the price of oil. But futures are available for as far out in the future as you want to go out on so long as buyer and seller can agree on price. In a normal market, future prices are lower in order to induce those who don't need the oil now to swap out expensive current contracts for cheaper future contracts thus making more oil available for those who need it now. When there is a an oil glut in the pipeline, current prices usually will be lower than future contracts to help work off the surplus. Normally, future prices are lower which is called "backwardization". What we have now is the reverse called "contango". That is because there is serious doubt about the assumed global reserves since more than 90% is under the government control of hostile nations. It is not an environment that attracts the massive capital required to expand production capacity. This is every bit as much a capital envirnoment problem as anything else. If you add Congress, you can say that 99% of the global reserves are under the control of hostile governments.
It's a mess and speculators are being falsely blamed because no one wants to accept that we are out of cheap oil.
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"It's a mess and speculators are being falsely blamed because no one wants to accept that we are out of cheap oil."
BS- We are not out of cheap oil, we have billions of barrels and you know it. Getting it is not that hard either.
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The majority of the gas stations by me have the super unleaded over $5.00. The medium is teetering and should be $5.00 by Monday.
On the radio, the commentators were predicting it might go to $6.00 real soon.
Drill or do something...stop the talk...give me action. |
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Do you live in Disneyland? Is that the magic kingdom you refer to? Is their alot of oil in that kingdom where oil magically ends up at the gas station just because you "believe" hard enough?
If I am wrong, you are going to have to offer a better argument than just your say so. I do this for a living and invest other people's money based on my years of research. What I DO know is that the world has billions of expensive oil left. Not so long ago, a Mr. Branson who owns his own airline decided that he was going to get around the oil monopoly and refine his own jet fuel. What ever happened to that? Apparently he didn't wish hard enough. Or maybe he didn't rub his magic crystal the right way?
Tell me something else that you believe "I know" but for some reason choose to lie about. |
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If we ever start drilling again, by the time that oil comes to market, you will be thrilled if that is enough to lower gas prices to $6. The correct argument to make to win the "drill now" debate is not to heighten voters' expectations that is will result in lower prices but that it will provide more oil later that will eventually halt the rise in prices. The Dems are arguing that we shouldn't drill now because it will have to impact on current prices. They are right and if we don't stop arguing that they will, they win because they caught us "lying". If farmers used Dem logic in deciding whether to plant crops, they wouldn't. No point planting in the spring if you have to wait until August to harvest. That's the argument we need to make in favor of drilling now and in a big way.
We can't "lie" our way to virtue. The facts are on our side if we stick to the facts and avoid foolish arguments based on winning elections in the short term only to be proven wrong when it counts later. "Another right wing neocon lie". Do we really need that? |
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You seem to know your stuff! I enjoy your rejection of magical thinking. Such thinking leads some to think that ANWR and the (bogus) huge Bakken desposits will lead us to energy nirvana. They won't
Can you point us to some on-line sources explaining how the system of commodities trading, futures contracts, operates?
If any major differences exist between that system and the one used to trade in oil futures, and sites or books lay them out, so much the better if you can include them.
Also, Bill O'Reilly seems to be totally wrong about what's going on wrt gas prices. The other night he claimed Big Oil was actively preventing research into alternative energy sources, which struck me as totally wrong (I've seen a figure of $14 billion invested by the Majors for that purpose) and impossible for any industry to do (did IBM prevent the PC?).
Besides, does Boeing have to invest in railroad technology? Why do pols (including Idiot John McCain) think oil companies have a duty to invest outside their industry?
Next thing, I suspect, O'reilly will tell us that the auto industry has suppressed cars that run on water , compressed air, etc.
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Thanks for your comments. I wish I could give you a reading list but I'm not an expert on futures trading. I am Series 3.0 licensed but don't use it. I learned what I know from getting licensed and many years of asking questions. I don't have time to be an expert on everything but try hard to develop a working knowledge as needed. But for trying to understand the mechanics of how markets work, I always start with sites that focus on training you to pass a securities license test. If you are serious about understanding futures and options trading, I would order the training materials from someplace like this:
http://www.aitraining.com/series3.htm
I would also highly recommend buying Barron's Dictionary of Financial and Investment Terms, it's a "must have" if you are serious about investing.
http://www.amazon.com/Dictionary-Financial-Investment-Barro ns-Guides/dp/0812025229/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1214 098210&sr=8-2
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I said it before I will say it again you are way more knowledgeable than I,no way i'm going to challange your info. My point is lets not look a gift horse in the mouth.We need to start drilling now and momentum is mounting.Since when has Congress ever done anything for the right reason and if the populace wanted to be informed half the country wouldn't be voting for Obama.I know your a purest but even if it's for the wrong reasons lets hope they do something right. |
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There IS a lot of oil left in the world but it is a very complicated issue to explain why prices are inevitably going to go higher and that there is nothing that will stop it unless we have a global recession. If "the market" is correct, the world's oil producers are signaling to us by economic behavior that the generally accepted assumptions about their oil reserves are too high. If you want to understand this, I strongly recommend the following books of which you absolutely read the first by Dr. David Goodstein, Vice-Provost of CalTech
"Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil" David Goodstein
This is a short book, readable in two hours or so but he clearly explains the science and geology of the problem in his inimitable and entertaining way. Great start.
I would also highly recommend two books by former Shell chief petroleum engineer and scientist Kenneth Defeyes but particularly his first book:
"Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage"
"Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak"
Finally, I would very highly recommend the following that really delves into great detail the problems with the Saudi oil industry.
"Twilight in the Desert" by Matthew Simmons
You have to be careful reading these books because there are a lot of fear-mongering socialists writing these too but these are thoroughly researched with excellent footnotes, bibliographies and other source references.
You might also check out one of my final essays on my blog called "The BIGNESS of Big Oil" which I wrote out of frustration. |
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If you know more about this than I do, prove it. What is the point of engaging in conversations with anyone if you aren't open to the possibility that you might be wrong? You can't just declare that "I, Sloandog, on my say so, declare the preceding statement by someone else to be wrong."
The drilling is NOT a gift horse because despite the mounting pressure, there is no one championing the cause who will get it through. The easiest way to derail the momentum is for someone, as the NYT did earlier this week in a factual and logical editorial, that promises of lower prices are FALSE. If you can't understand that, you are your own worst enemy. The facts and logic are on our side so LET'S USE THE TRUTH! Do you think McCain cares about drilling? Dream on! He wants Cap and Trade and would like nothing better than to see this push for drilling derailed. His position is designed to push for what will fail (opening the developed oil wells just offshore because the states oppose it) while opposing what wouldn't (ANWR which Alaska supports). McCain used that very speech to score points by crowing about standing up to Bush on global warming. Wake up pal, you are being played like a fiddle. |
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I completely misread your opening comment and so my response looks pretty dumb. I missed your tongue-in-cheekness. But my logic remains the same. Charles Krauthammer nailed it today. Someone else, whose name I can't find again, posted a comment earlier today saying that arguing against drilling for oil today because it won't be available for at least five years is like farmers refusing to plant in the spring because the crop won't be available for harvest until late summer/early fall. That is the best and most obvious argument we have and if we stick to that, we will win. |
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I just admitted you know more than me,how is that offending you? I never mentioned John McCain but I realize his anemic approach and his failure to seize the day.Read my post again Pasap,I believe you took it the wrong way. |
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Yeah, our comments crossed. I had no sooner hit "post" than I realized my mistake. I apologize profusely. I'm sure I could think of a pathetic excuse but I can't. I screwed up. |
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I am, and have been for a long time, part of drill now crowd. I totally agree with you, however about the expectations of $2/gal or even $3/gal gas is totally unrealistic. It ain't goin' to happen.
I do think that as soon as the other oil producing countries see that we are serious about working hard towards energy independence that the pressure of continually spiraling high prices will be relieved. Then, speculators, rather than betting on future higher prices, they will be seeing a stablization of prices.
Even though we should be developing every type of alternative energy sources - coal, wind, solar, nuclear, etc., the truth is our economy will run on oil for many years. We must, in the meantime, increase exploration for that oil.
I know that it may take several years for that oil we go after today to ultimately hit the marketplace, but if we continue to do nothing, several years from now we will be in dire straits. Imagine, if we had started real oil exploration, building equipment, building new refineries, 10 years ago. We could now thumb our nose at the Saudi's instead of crawling to them on hands and knees begging for more. |
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You can have tons of oil, but without more refineries to turn it into gasoline we're still stuck with a bottleneck. |
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So, let's not start building more refineries, as we've NOT been building for decades. That way, 10 years from now we can be paying $20/gal for gas and still be unable to refine the oil for our needs.
I say, let's start right now building drilling equipment, building new refineries, getting the oil out from under any polar bears butts. Also, at the same time continuing to develop alternative energy, including nuclear. |
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Dice K was brutal today. Holy cow! I'm already looking to 2010 and 2012. This election is lost. Lets allow Hussein to win. My 2012 favorities are Thune, Palin and may number one is Jindal. Jindal has cut taxes, brought in school choice and has taken on corruption. This guy is brillant. |
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Dice-K was awful. Hopefully he was just rusty from coming off the DL, and not another injury. He really stunk up Fenway though.
The Cubbies keep rolling - taking it to the White Sox again. Sounds like the news on Zambrano could have been a lot worse. The Cubs look like the best of the NL.
I agree with your assessment of this year - what a mess. I also like your favorites for the future. I think once Americans get a real dose of liberalism (if McCain wins) or Marxism (if Obama wins) conservatives should make a big comeback as early as 2010. I have been a huge Romney supporter and think he would be an excellent Presidential candidate in 2012, but I also like your picks as well.
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What's with Dice-K's arm? Did he throw anything above 87 mph? And by the way, I don't know if I made it clear enough but I have always been a strong advocate of domestic drilling including building the associated infrastructure. We could jump start a strong economy by rebuilding our manufacturing base around all of the equipment needed. There is only one major advantage of having a depressed dollar and that is exporting. We should be investing in manufacturing for export. Another reason we shouldn't be lying about near-term reductions in price of oil. The truth is such a good story and is easier to understand than the complex explanations and smoke screens that accompany any lie when exposed. |
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That it's not just the amount of oil being pumped, but the ability to convert it into gasoline which also matter. |
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More refineries NOW!!!
Think of the contractors put to work building them. Think of the benefit they would be to our nation for the next 30 years or so.
And if we could get off the Middle Eastern oil *teet* all together - imagine the help that would be to our own economic and national security purposes...
Drill HERE, Drill NOW, build refineries - and push nuclear...
Just do it Congress... We citizens are not patient indefinitely! |
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